Any social scientist, "expert", risk analyst predicting Nigeria's future needs to check into a mental health institution. Nigeria defies all odds & extremely unique, it is one country that makes a mess of Newton's law of universal gravitation.
Events that would lead other humans into a spontaneous revolution lead Nigerians into ingenuity, issues that would pass by in other countries as a joke or comedy will become a National crisis, With frenzied bigotry, primordial attacks and even declaration of war.
So predicting that Nigeria will fall or not fall apart is simply a waste of analytical thinking, the best any analyst can say is, 'let us wait and see, wait for the other surprise that would come out of Nigeria'
One prediction you can always get right about Nigeria and Nigerians is that, if pushed into the wall with extremely oppressive policy, Nigerians will BREAK THE WALL and look for another means of survival. Some call it resilience, others call it timidity.